Rising mercury of interest rates in the Indian economy has melted the advancements of real estate sector even though the demand is more than the supply in the Indian Property Market. Demand is the willingness to purchase backed by the purchasing power. From the study of the recent economic trend in the Indian property market, it can be observed that the rising inflation has the effect of curbing the purchasing power of the end user as well as the investor which in effect has the impact of lowering the demand which in turn would have the impact of lowering the prices in turn having the impact of reducing the supply.This circle is called recession in the market when even though the property is cheap and getting cheaper no sales is achieved inspite of the fact that the market has a very strong latent potential to absorb the available resources.
In order to conclude or analyze the scenario in Indian context, the under mentioned facts provide useful insight. Price movement of the last three to six months in the central business districts in key cities has been low although supply in the commercial real estate has increased in the coming six to eight quarters. The prices of steel, cement, etc risen sharply along with the land price.
There is a mixed investor opinion prevalent in the real estate sector that the there is a sharp decline of 10 to 15 per cent in the past six months in prime commercial areas and there is projection that there will be a further dip of 10 per cent in the coming months across key Indian cities. To compliment the projections, it has been observed that the office buildings in central business districts of Delhi have neither shown a rise nor a fall in the prices, it has remained at the same level as it was previously. Furthermore, on the study of facts, it is clear that the rentals in suburbs have either remained same or have declined.
The table lists the prices of some of the key business districts in Delhi –
Areas
Rates [Rupees per square feet ]
Connaught Place
330 to Rs 375
Nehru Place
220 to 260
Gurgaon and Noida
50 to 200
Slowdown in Mumbai
The Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority which is the city planning agency for Mumbai was not able to get bidders for two plots in a new business district at the Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC). Analysts say this is a clear indication of a recession in the real estate sector at Mumbai.
The following table give a comparative analysis of the clear recession faced by the Mumbai Real Estate -
| Areas | Rs. Per square foot Then | Rs. Per Square Foot Now |
| Landmark Office Tower At Worli | 550 | 375 |
| Rental at BKC | 450 | 375 (PROJECTED) |
As far as the growth rates are concerned the following table may prove useful for analysis -
| Growth Rates | Prevalent Then | Projected Now |
| Growth rate in the rentals of the prime city center | 30 to 40 per cent | 8 to 15 per cent |
| SBI’s Home Loan Growth Portfolio | 20 per cent | 16 per cent |
Residential Property which should have become more alluring due to fall in sales price and dip in the rate of home loan disbursals currently offered by banks shows slackened demand as it still stays out of reach of the middle class pockets. This is evident by a dip of 20 to 30 percent in the apartment sales. Even though the
developers in order to boost the declined sales are offering attractive freebies like stamp duty relief, free parking lots and free interior designing for these apartments. Although the sales has declined due to lack of purchasing power in the hands of willing customers but the developers find themselves incapacitated to cut down the prices as once any such cut down is implemented it shall send feelers of recession. In ripple effect to which real estate market might have to face a market crash. Therefore it becomes difficult but important to maintain the sale prices even though there are no sales. Although it is projected that April and May of this year may change the direction of winds in the favour of the real estate segment. But if the sales does not catch with the hopes and projections, then there will be a dip and downfall of ten to fifteen percent in the property prices.
Conventionally a stock market boom is coupled with the real estate recession and a stock market slowdown is coupled with the real estate boom. But to the contrary, the recent 5000 point crash in the real estate has not shown the predictable rise.
There is a lot of market hype surrounding the areas like Greater Noida, Kundli and even some parts of Gurgaon. JLLM Chairman Anuj Puri believes that investors, who comprise nearly 20 per cent of property buyers, are staying out after the stock market crash. “The absence of speculator interest has led to a 15 to 20 per cent correction in areas like Gurgaon and Noida,” he said.
Cyberabad Highlights
The southern city of Cyberabad has seen a shift of the main target audience from the investors segment to the end users segment. The city is not facing any slowdown nor has it demonstrated any symptoms of the same hitherto but the only fact that can be highlighted is that only flats are in demand.
Bangalore Highlights
There is either a fall or stagnation in the property prices in the Bangalore’s commercial business district for the last four to five months. The reason behind the stagnation of the prices is attributable more to the increase in supply than to decrease in demand.
Prices are expected to remain sluggish all over the projection by Habitat Ventures that they could fall further by up to 10 to 15 per cent. And even more so over if the coupled with high interest rates.